While attention has been focused on the super-tight 29th Senate District contest and Jose F. Moreno’s razor-think upset of Anaheim Councilman Jordan Brandman, Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez has been quietly closing the gap with Supervisor Andrew Do in the 1st Supervisor District. Do now leads Martinez by 1,058 votes:
Do led Martinez by more than 4,000 votes last week.
As in SD29 and elsewhere, late and provisional ballots have heavily favored Democratic candidates – which is understandable given the organization and resources Democrats and their political allies are able to throw into pushing un-engaged, low-information voters to cast ballots.
How many ballots are left to count? Here are the most recent county-wide figures per the OC Registrar of Voters:
- 16 vote-by-mail ballots
- 91 vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls
- 56 Election Day paper ballots
- 262 eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day
- 48,411 provisional ballots.
If Martinez is going to pass Do, those voter will come from the provisional ballots.
OC Daily doesn’t have information on how many of these uncounted ballots are from the 1st Supervisor District.
Close elections seem to come with the territory in the 1st Supervisor District. Janet Nguyen won the 2007 special election in it by 3 votes. Do won the 2015 special election by 47 votes. Don’t be surprised if this contest is decided by a similarly narrow margin.
UPDATE 5:49 p.m., November 24: according to a source close to the action, there are 3,000 votes left to count in the 1st Supervisor District. Only 100 are in Santa Ana (many of which are reportedly problematic), with the rest coming from Garden Grove, Fountain Valley and Westminster. In other words, the bulk of remaining ballots come from areas of strength for Do.
Counting will finish on Saturday.