November 14 Election Update: Looks Like Quirk-Silva Has Clinched AD65

The latest update has posted on the OC Registrar of Voters website. Let’s take a look at how some close Orange County races are shaping up.

Assembly District 65
In Assembly District 65, Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva widened her lead over GOP incumbent Young Kim. 8,124 more votes were counted, and Quirk-Silva went from 1773 to 2,175 – a pick-up of 402 votes.

1st Supervisor District
Supervisor Andrew Do’s lead over Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez shrank a little bit from 6,071 t0 5,962 votes, but he maintains a 5.6% lead.

Anaheim City Council: District 1 and 3
Another 618 ballots were counted in District 1, and resulting in Republican Denise Barnes picking up  50 votes. She now leads Republican Steve Chavez Lodge by 183 votes – a margin Lodge is unlikely to overcome. Color this one a near-certain pick-up for the Tait Slate.

In District 3, 947 more ballots were counted and leftist Democrat Jose F, Moreno gaining 33 votes on Democrat Councilman Jordan Brandman, who still maintains a 279 vote lead.

This one will be close, and the outcome will determine whether Mayor Tom Tait gains an ostensible council majority consisting of himself, Councilman James Vanderbilt, (very likely) Denise Barnes and (maybe) Jose F. Moreno. It would be an unwieldy, ideologically polyglot coalition, and questionable whether it would hold together to achieve Tait’s Ahab-esque quest of killing the Hotel Incentive Policy of using TOT tax rebates to attract luxury hotels. Moreno’s political allies do not oppose TOT tax rebates per se – they oppose granting them without requirements such as mandatory unionization of hotel workers.

How Many Votes Left To Count
The OC Registrar of Voters has counted 116,522 ballots since the day after Election Day, and still has 287,875 to go. Those remaining ballots break-down as follows:

10,088 vote-by-mail ballots left (85,718 counted so far).

133,370 vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left (30,804 counted so far)

108,000 provisional ballots left (none have been counted)

22,500 Election Day paper ballots left (none have been counted)

13,917 vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left (none have been counted)

There’s no real way to know the geographic distribution of the remaining ballots.

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