While the conventional wisdom has failed most spectacularly at the national level this year, its track record hasn’t been much better when it comes to the 1st Supervisor District election.
Political watchers expected Supervisor Andrew Do to finish well ahead of his challengers in the June primary. Many observers – this writer included – thought the primary unknown was whether or not he could pass the 50% mark and obviate the need for a November run-off.
Instead, Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez rode a big Democratic turn-out to a first-place finish in the primary.
Practically overnight, the insider chatter flipped from the inevitability to a Do victory, to viewing Do as a dead-man-walking. While a few veterans campaign hands saw it as a coin-toss, most viewed Martinez of the near-certain winner.
And again, the conventional wisdom was wrong, as Do racked up a significant lead over Martinez:
Granted, there are about 400,000 uncounted ballots county-wide and these numbers could change; Martinez took the lead in June after the initial reporting. However, Do is in a good place as the ballot counting continues.
“Orange County voters sent a strong message of support for Supervisor Andrew Do’s work to help our homeless, keep our community safe and invest in opportunities for every family in Orange County,” Do Chief of Staff Brian Probolsky told OC Daily.
“Supervisor Andrew Do will continue to work with everyone to implement commonsense solutions to our biggest challenges.”